Failed MRR
sum of unpaid subscription invoices
Start with subscription revenue Stripe attempted to collect but did not collect.
Payment recovery metric
MRR at risk is failed revenue before it becomes churn.
For SaaS teams, a failed Stripe payment should not move straight into churn reporting. Track it as MRR at risk first, then recover it with the right email, retry, update link, or founder review.
Formula
How to calculate MRR at risk from failed payments
Recoverable MRR
failed MRR x expected recovery rate
Estimate the portion that can still be recovered through retries, update links, emails, or manual escalation.
Final churn exposure
failed MRR - recovered MRR
Only unresolved revenue should become involuntary churn once the recovery window ends.
Examples
MRR at risk examples by SaaS stage
These examples use public benchmark assumptions and are directional, not a guarantee. Your real number depends on failure mix, billing interval, card age, customer geography, and retry setup.
Stage
Rate
Failed MRR
Recoverable
Takeaway
$10k MRR SaaS
5.1%
$510
$316
Small leaks become meaningful once they repeat every month.
$25k MRR SaaS
5.8%
$1,450
$899
At this stage, payment recovery deserves weekly review.
$80k MRR SaaS
6.4%
$5,120
$3,174
High-value failures should trigger founder or operator review.
Track the state, not just the failure.
A failed invoice can be recovered, unresolved, escalated, or lost. Reporting all four states keeps payment failure from polluting product churn analysis.
Failed MRR by Stripe decline code
Recovered MRR by recovery step
Open delinquent MRR still inside the dunning window
Final involuntary churn after recovery ends
High-value accounts awaiting founder escalation
Recovery action
Reduce MRR at risk by matching action to failure reason.
Expired cards need update links. Insufficient funds need timing. Bank blocks need clear context. Authentication failures need a confirmation path. Dunlo turns those states into recovery workflows around Stripe.
View email templatesMRR at risk FAQ
What is MRR at risk?
MRR at risk is recurring revenue attached to failed, unpaid, or unresolved subscription payments that may become churn if the payment is not recovered.
How do you calculate MRR at risk from Stripe?
Add the monthly recurring value of failed Stripe invoices or failed subscription payments that remain unresolved. Then separate recovered revenue from final churn once the dunning window ends.
Is MRR at risk the same as churned MRR?
No. MRR at risk is a temporary recovery state. Churned MRR is the unresolved amount that remains after retries, customer emails, update links, and escalation fail.
Why track MRR at risk by decline code?
Decline codes show the right recovery path. Expired cards need update links, insufficient funds need timing, bank blocks need clear explanation, and high-value failures may need founder review.
Involuntary churn calculator
Estimate how much failed payment revenue may turn into churn.
Open guideStripe failed payment benchmark
Use the public benchmark to estimate failed MRR by SaaS stage.
Open guideStripe failed payment emails
Copy customer-safe email templates for common Stripe failure reasons.
Open guideFree during beta
See which failed Stripe payments are still recoverable.
Connect Stripe, group failures by reason, and track recovered revenue before at-risk MRR becomes final churn.